“Only if one pay attention to the surrounding environment, will he be able to discover the global trend is taking place. Behind these trend is the enormous investment opportunity."
Were it not for my global investing opportunity, I could not think of MSFT and see the treasure in advance of others. In fact, I noted the opportunity of the United States’ bull market in the fourth quarter of 1994. Meanwhile, the market was already starting to appear its best investment status – low interest rate, foreign exchange rate and stock price. It was like Japan’s stock market in June and July of 1975. Therefore, I boldly indicated that Dow Jones would had boomed to 10,000 point before 1999 while it was not only 4,000 point. (Many “professional" global fund managers and financial newspaper’s editorial said Dow Jones would not excess more than 5,000 points.)
Afterwards, the fact has proved I was correct. In the same time, I was also incorrect. Because what mainly caused this happened was not DJIA (Dow Jones Industrial Average), but NASDAQ. Specially, MSFT (Microsoft stock) was the leading stock which I had bought earlier. Was this another fortunate occurrence? Someone believe that it was because CNY had depreciated to 8.7 RMB from 5.3 RMB against one USD by China government (There was still dual exchange rate system at time). This depreciation of RMB caused global transformation that obviously remain today. In my opinion, the depreciation of RMB was not an occasional cause, but an inexorable trend. As my past experience, how should I know I was going to unveil another enormous treasure while I was purchasing (2915) Ruentex Industries Limited in the end of 2008.
Jintao Hu had a speech about China’s labor income, he hope it could grow faster after the event of Foxconn suicides in 2010. Just like the saying: “Fruits fall off when they ripe"- things will be easily settled when conditions are ripe.
Due to China’s lack of funds after the government was taking control of economic policy in 1978. It want to follow the example set by Japan and Taiwan: increasing external funds from export trade. Besides its extremely fossil and opposite concept. China found its costly labor expense, according to the currency at time, was the main problem of economic decline. Therefore, it always found ways to liberalize its currency and foreign exchange currency rate. Not until 1994, RMB had greatly depreciated and got the significant progress after that. (We can obviously see the change of RMB/USD from the illustration. Nevertheless, it is the official price, the black market was about 2.8 RMB against one USD. )
I don’t want to mention about my awareness of purchasing NASDAQ. Here I want to talk about was I unconsciously hold the key of another map’s treasury box, not only the present wealth. (2303) United Microelectronics Corp., a manufacturer of DRAM at time, have gradually raise while I bought MSFT in 1991. Meanwhile, I was unaware about the relationship between MSFT and (2303) United Microelectronics Corp, for my lack of knowledge in electronic industrial. I was curious why this semiconductor stock, that had ignored by most investors before, was increasing. Although I have worked in Advanced Semiconductor Engineering and understand what so called " Semiconductor" and all its progress of packing. I still had no clue about the relationship between Semiconductor and Microsoft.
I was so upset after I figured them out. Because I lose the great chance to have my first bucket of gold. Under this uncertain conditional, were few Taiwan traders know to buy the semiconductor stock, especially MSFT. In spite of that, I got to know about semiconductor industrial in advance than others.
To be continued….
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